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Aim  Africa is identified by the Inter‐governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the least studied continent in terms of ecosystem dynamics and climate variability. The aim of this study was (1) to adapt the Lund‐Postdam‐Jena‐GUESS (LPJ‐GUESS) ecological modelling framework to Africa by providing new parameter values for tropical plant functional types (PFT), and (2) to assess the sensitivity of some African biomes to changes in precipitation regime.

Location  The study area was a representative transect (0–22° N and 7–18° E) through the transition from equatorial evergreen forests to savannas, steppes and desert northwards. The transect showed large latitudinal variation in precipitation (mean rainfall ranged from 50 to 2300 mm year⁻¹).

Methods  New PFT parameters used to calibrate LPJ‐GUESS were based on modern pollen PFTs and remote sensed leaf area index (LAI). The model was …