作者
Christopher JL Murray, Katrina F Ortblad, Caterina Guinovart, Stephen S Lim, Timothy M Wolock, D Allen Roberts, Emily A Dansereau, Nicholas Graetz, Ryan M Barber, Jonathan C Brown, Haidong Wang, Herbert C Duber, Mohsen Naghavi, Daniel Dicker, Lalit Dandona, Joshua A Salomon, Kyle R Heuton, Kyle Foreman, David E Phillips, Thomas D Fleming, Abraham D Flaxman, Bryan K Phillips, Elizabeth K Johnson, Megan S Coggeshall, Foad Abd-Allah, Semaw Ferede Abera, Jerry P Abraham, Ibrahim Abubakar, Laith J Abu-Raddad, Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki, Austine Olufemi Adeyemo, Arsène Kouablan Adou, José C Adsuar, Emilie Elisabet Agardh, Dickens Akena, Mazin J Al Kahbouri, Deena Alasfoor, Mohammed I Albittar, Gabriel Alcalá-Cerra, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, Francois Alla, Peter J Allen, Ubai Alsharif, Elena Alvarez, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Adansi A Amankwaa, Azmeraw T Amare, Hassan Amini, Walid Ammar, Benjamin O Anderson, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Johan Ärnlöv, Valentina S Arsic Arsenijevic, Ali Artaman, Rana J Asghar, Reza Assadi, Lydia S Atkins, Alaa Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Amitava Banerjee, Sanjay Basu, Justin Beardsley, Tolesa Bekele, Michelle L Bell, Eduardo Bernabe, Tariku Jibat Beyene, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Aref Bin Abdulhak, Agnes Binagwaho, Jed D Blore, Berrak Bora Basara, Dipan Bose, Michael Brainin, Nicholas Breitborde, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Ferrán Catalá-López, Vineet K Chadha, Jung-Chen Chang, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Ting-Wu Chuang, Mercedes Colomar, Leslie Trumbull Cooper, Cyrus Cooper, Karen J Courville, Benjamin C Cowie, Michael H Criqui, Rakhi Dandona, Anand Dayama, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Borja Del Pozo-Cruz, Kebede Deribe, Don C Des Jarlais, Muluken Dessalegn, Samath D Dharmaratne, Uğur Dilmen, Eric L Ding, Tim R Driscoll, Adnan M Durrani, Richard G Ellenbogen, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Alireza Esteghamati, Jose A Faraon, Farshad Farzadfar, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Urbano Fra Paleo, Lynne Gaffikin, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Johanna M Geleijnse, Bradford D Gessner, Katherine B Gibney, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi, Elizabeth L Glaser, Philimon Gona, Atsushi Goto, Hebe N Gouda, Harish Chander Gugnani, Rajeev Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh, Mouhanad Hammami, Graeme J Hankey, Hilda L Harb, Josep Maria Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Mohammad T Hedayati, Ileana B Heredia Pi, Hans W Hoek, John C Hornberger, H Dean Hosgood, Peter J Hotez, Damian G Hoy, John J Huang, Kim M Iburg, Bulat T Idrisov, Kaire Innos, Kathryn H Jacobsen
发表日期
2014/9/13
期刊
The Lancet
卷号
384
期号
9947
页码范围
1005-1070
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background
The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.
Methods
To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and …
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CJL Murray, KF Ortblad, C Guinovart, SS Lim… - The Lancet, 2014