作者
Haidong Wang, Mohsen Naghavi, Christine Allen, Ryan M Barber, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Austin Carter, Daniel C Casey, Fiona J Charlson, Alan Zian Chen, Matthew M Coates, Megan Coggeshall, Lalit Dandona, Daniel J Dicker, Holly E Erskine, Alize J Ferrari, Christina Fitzmaurice, Kyle Foreman, Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Maya S Fraser, Nancy Fullman, Peter W Gething, Ellen M Goldberg, Nicholas Graetz, Juanita A Haagsma, Simon I Hay, Chantal Huynh, Catherine O Johnson, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Yohannes Kinfu, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Michael Kutz, Hmwe H Kyu, Heidi J Larson, Janni Leung, Xiaofeng Liang, Stephen S Lim, Margaret Lind, Rafael Lozano, Neal Marquez, George A Mensah, Joe Mikesell, Ali H Mokdad, Meghan D Mooney, Grant Nguyen, Elaine Nsoesie, David M Pigott, Christine Pinho, Gregory A Roth, Joshua A Salomon, Logan Sandar, Naris Silpakit, Amber Sligar, Reed JD Sorensen, Jeffrey Stanaway, Caitlyn Steiner, Stephanie Teeple, Bernadette A Thomas, Christopher Troeger, Amelia VanderZanden, Stein Emil Vollset, Valentine Wanga, Harvey A Whiteford, Timothy Wolock, Leo Zoeckler, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Kaja M Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Semaw Ferede Abera, Daisy MX Abreu, Laith J Abu-Raddad, Gebre Yitayih Abyu, Tom Achoki, Ademola Lukman Adelekan, Zanfina Ademi, Arsène Kouablan Adou, José C Adsuar, Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi, Ashkan Afshin, Emilie Elisabet Agardh, Arnav Agarwal, Anurag Agrawal, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Oluremi N Ajala, Ali Shafqat Akanda, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Tomi F Akinyemiju, Nadia Akseer, Faris Hasan Al Lami, Samer Alabed, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Noore KM Alam, Deena Alasfoor, Saleh Fahed Aldhahri, Robert William Aldridge, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Alicia V Aleman, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Lily T Alexander, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, Ala'a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Khalid A Altirkawi, Elena Alvarez Martin, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Azmeraw T Amare, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Emmanuel A Ameh, Heresh Amini, Walid Ammar, Stephen Marc Amrock, Hjalte H Andersen, Benjamin O Anderson, Gregory M Anderson, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Atsede Fantahun Aregay, Johan Ärnlöv, Valentina S Arsic Arsenijevic, Al Artaman, Hamid Asayesh, Rana Jawad Asghar, Suleman Atique, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Peter Azzopardi, Umar Bacha, Alaa Badawi, Maria C Bahit, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Amitava Banerjee, Aleksandra Barac, Suzanne L Barker-Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Lars Barregard, Lope H Barrero, Arindam Basu, Sanjay Basu, Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Justin Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Haileeyesus Adamu Belay, Brent Bell, Michelle L Bell
发表日期
2016/10/8
期刊
The lancet
卷号
388
期号
10053
页码范围
1459-1544
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background
Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.
Methods
We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded …
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