作者
Aglaé Jézéquel, Vivian Dépoues, Hélène Guillemot, Mélodie Trolliet, Jean-Paul Vanderlinden, Pascal Yiou
发表日期
2018/8
期刊
Climatic Change
卷号
149
页码范围
367-383
出版商
Springer Netherlands
简介
Since Allen (Nature 421(6926):891–892, 2003)’s seminal article, the community of extreme event attribution (EEA) has grown to maturity. Several approaches have been developed: the main ones are the “risk-based approach” — estimating how the probability of event occurrence correlates with climate change — and the “storyline approach” — evaluating the influence of climate change on thermodynamic processes leading to the event. In this article, we map the ways to frame attribution used in a collection of 105 case studies from five BAMS (Bulletin of American Meteorological Society) special issues on extreme events. In order to do so, we propose to define EEA, based on two corpora of interviews conducted with researchers working in the field, as follows: EEA is the ensemble of scientific ways to interpret the question “was this event influenced by climate change?” and answer it. In order to break down …
引用总数
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