作者
George M Durner, David C Douglas, Ryan M Nielson, Steven C Amstrup, Trent L McDonald, Ian Stirling, Mette Mauritzen, Erik W Born, Øystein Wiig, Eric DeWeaver, Mark C Serreze, Stanislav E Belikov, Marika M Holland, James Maslanik, Jon Aars, David A Bailey, Andrew E Derocher
发表日期
2009/2
期刊
Ecological Monographs
卷号
79
期号
1
页码范围
25-58
出版商
Ecological Society of America
简介
Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellite‐collared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st‐century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario …
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