作者
Sarah Blach, Norah A Terrault, Frank Tacke, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Antonio Craxi, Junko Tanaka, Imam Waked, Gregory J Dore, Zaigham Abbas, Ayat R Abdallah, Maheeba Abdulla, Alessio Aghemo, Inka Aho, Ulus S Akarca, Abduljaleel M Alalwan, Marianne Alanko Blomé, Said A Al-Busafi, Soo Aleman, Abdullah S Alghamdi, Waleed K Al-Hamoudi, Abdulrahman A Aljumah, Khalid Al-Naamani, Yousif M Al Serkal, Ibrahim H Altraif, Anil C Anand, Motswedi Anderson, Monique I Andersson, Kostas Athanasakis, Oidov Baatarkhuu, Shokhista R Bakieva, Ziv Ben-Ari, Fernando Bessone, Mia J Biondi, Abdul Rahman N Bizri, Carlos E Brandão-Mello, Krestina Brigida, Kimberly A Brown, Robert S Brown Jr, Philip Bruggmann, Maurizia R Brunetto, Dana Busschots, Maria Buti, Maia Butsashvili, Joaquin Cabezas, Chungman Chae, Viktorija Chaloska Ivanova, Henry Lik Yuen Chan, Hugo Cheinquer, Kent Jason Cheng, Myeong-Eun Cheon, Cheng-Hung Chien, Rong-Nan Chien, Gourdas Choudhuri, Peer Brehm Christensen, Wan-Long Chuang, Vladimir Chulanov, Laura E Cisneros, Barbara Coco, Fernando A Contreras, Markus Cornberg, Matthew E Cramp, Javier Crespo, Fuqiang Cui, Chris W Cunningham, Lucy Dagher Abou, Olav Dalgard, Doan Y Dao, Victor De Ledinghen, Moutaz F Derbala, Keshab Deuba, Karan Dhindsa, Samsuridjal Djauzi, Sylvia Drazilova, Ann-Sofi Duberg, Mohammed Elbadri, Manal H El-Sayed, Gamal Esmat, Chris Estes, Sameera Ezzat, Martti A Färkkilä, Laurent Ferradini, Maria Lucia G Ferraz, Paulo RA Ferreira, Tajana Filipec Kanizaj, Robert Flisiak, Sona Frankova, James Fung, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Edward Gane, Virginia Garcia, Javier García-Samaniego, Manik Gemilyan, Jordan Genov, Liliana S Gheorghe, Pierre M Gholam, Adrian Goldis, Magnus Gottfredsson, Richard T Gray, Jason Grebely, Michael Gschwantler, Behzad Hajarizadeh, Saeed S Hamid, Waseem Hamoudi, Angelos Hatzakis, Margaret E Hellard, Sayed Himatt, Harald Hofer, Irena Hrstic, Bela Hunyady, Petr Husa, Azra Husic-Selimovic, Wasim SM Jafri, Martin Janicko, Naveed Janjua, Peter Jarcuska, Jerzy Jaroszewicz, Anna Jerkeman, Agita Jeruma, Jidong Jia, Jon G Jonasson, Martin Kåberg, Kelly DE Kaita, Kulpash S Kaliaskarova, Jia-Horng Kao, Omor T Kasymov, Angela Kelly-Hanku, Faryal Khamis, Jawad Khamis, Aamir G Khan, Lekey Khandu, Ibtissam Khoudri, Knut B Kielland, Nicolas Kodjoh, Loreta A Kondili, Mel Krajden, Henrik Bygum Krarup, Pavol Kristian, Jisoo A Kwon, Martin Lagging, Wim Laleman, Wai Cheung Lao, Daniel Lavanchy, Pablo Lázaro, Jeffrey V Lazarus, Alice U Lee, Mei-Hsuan Lee, Michael KK Li, Valentina Liakina, Young-Suk Lim, Arthur Löve
发表日期
2022/5/1
来源
The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology
卷号
7
期号
5
页码范围
396-415
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background
Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends.
Methods
This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age ≥0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade …
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