作者
Natalia A Molodecky, Hamid Jafari, Rana M Safdar, Jamal A Ahmed, Abdirahman Mahamud, Ananda S Bandyopadhyay, Hemant Shukla, Arshad Quddus, Michel Zaffran, Roland W Sutter, Nicholas C Grassly, Isobel M Blake
发表日期
2023/4/6
期刊
Vaccine
卷号
41
页码范围
A93-A104
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background
Since July 2019, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been facing an outbreak of serotype-2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) in addition to continued transmission of serotype-1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) and SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. Understanding the risks of cVDPV2 transmission due to pause of global vaccination efforts and the impact of potential vaccination response strategies in the current context of COVID-19 mitigation measures is critical.
Methods
We developed a stochastic, geographically structured mathematical model of cVDPV2 transmission which captures both mucosal and humoral immunity separately and allows for reversion of serotype-2 oral polio vaccine (OPV2) virus to cVDPV2 following vaccine administration. The model includes geographic heterogeneities in vaccination coverage, population immunity and population movement. The model was fitted to historic cVDPV2 cases …
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NA Molodecky, H Jafari, RM Safdar, JA Ahmed… - Vaccine, 2023