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METHODS:

The derivation cohort included 60 subjects with AP with early serum samples collected between 2007 and 2010. Twenty-five cytokines associated with an acute inflammatory response were ranked by computing the mutual information between their levels and the outcome of POF; 5 high-ranking cytokines were selected. These cytokines were subsequently measured in early serum samples of an independent prospective verification cohort of 133 patients (2012–2016), and the results were trained in a Random Forest classifier. Cross-validated performance metrics were compared with the predictive accuracies of conventional laboratory tests and clinical scores.

RESULTS:

Angiopoietin 2, hepatocyte growth factor, interleukin 8, resistin, and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1A were the highest-ranking cytokines in the derivation cohort; each reflects a pathologic process relevant to POF. A Random …