作者
Ning Lu, Ruisheng Diao, Ryan P Hafen, Nader Samaan, Yuri V Makarov
发表日期
2013/7/21
研讨会论文
2013 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting
页码范围
1-5
出版商
IEEE
简介
This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series, including a truncated-normal distribution model, a state-space based Markov model, a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and a stochastic-optimization based model. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets, used for variable generation integration studies. A comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics. This paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.
引用总数
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学术搜索中的文章
N Lu, R Diao, RP Hafen, N Samaan, YV Makarov - 2013 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, 2013