作者
Nik J Cunniffe, Richard C Cobb, Ross K Meentemeyer, David M Rizzo, Christopher A Gilligan
发表日期
2016/5/17
期刊
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
卷号
113
期号
20
页码范围
5640-5645
出版商
National Academy of Sciences
简介
Sudden oak death, caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has killed millions of oak and tanoak in California since its first detection in 1995. Despite some localized small-scale management, there has been no large-scale attempt to slow the spread of the pathogen in California. Here we use a stochastic spatially explicit model parameterized using data on the spread of P. ramorum to investigate whether and how the epidemic can be controlled. We find that slowing the spread of P. ramorum is now not possible, and has been impossible for a number of years. However, despite extensive cryptic (i.e., presymptomatic) infection and frequent long-range transmission, effective exclusion of the pathogen from large parts of the state could, in principle, have been possible were it to have been started by 2002. This is the approximate date by which sufficient knowledge of P. ramorum epidemiology had accumulated for large …
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NJ Cunniffe, RC Cobb, RK Meentemeyer, DM Rizzo… - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2016