作者
Homie Razavi, Antoine C ElKhoury, Elamin Elbasha, Chris Estes, Ken Pasini, Thierry Poynard, Ritesh Kumar
发表日期
2013/6
期刊
Hepatology
卷号
57
期号
6
页码范围
2164-2170
出版商
Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
简介
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation. A better understanding of HCV disease progression and the associated cost can help the medical community manage HCV and develop treatment strategies in light of the emergence of several potent anti‐HCV therapies. A system dynamic model with 36 cohorts was used to provide maximum flexibility and improved forecasting. New infections incidence of 16,020 (95% confidence interval, 13,510‐19,510) was estimated in 2010. HCV viremic prevalence peaked in 1994 at 3.3 (2.8‐4.0) million, but it is expected to decline by two‐thirds by 2030. The prevalence of more advanced liver disease, however, is expected to increase, as well as the total cost associated with chronic HCV infection. Today, the total cost is estimated at $6.5 ($4.3‐$8.4) billion and it will peak in 2024 at $9.1 ($6.4‐$13.3) billion …
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