作者
Elliott H Bussell, Ciara E Dangerfield, Christopher A Gilligan, Nik J Cunniffe
发表日期
2019/7/8
期刊
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
卷号
374
期号
1776
页码范围
20180284
出版商
The Royal Society
简介
Mathematical models provide a rational basis to inform how, where and when to control disease. Assuming an accurate spatially explicit simulation model can be fitted to spread data, it is straightforward to use it to test the performance of a range of management strategies. However, the typical complexity of simulation models and the vast set of possible controls mean that only a small subset of all possible strategies can ever be tested. An alternative approach—optimal control theory—allows the best control to be identified unambiguously. However, the complexity of the underpinning mathematics means that disease models used to identify this optimum must be very simple. We highlight two frameworks for bridging the gap between detailed epidemic simulations and optimal control theory: open-loop and model predictive control. Both these frameworks approximate a simulation model with a simpler model more …
引用总数
2019202020212022202320243181010154
学术搜索中的文章
EH Bussell, CE Dangerfield, CA Gilligan, NJ Cunniffe - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 2019