作者
Samuel R Hyatt‐Twynam, Stephen Parnell, Richard OJH Stutt, Tim R Gottwald, Christopher A Gilligan, Nik J Cunniffe
发表日期
2017/5
期刊
New Phytologist
卷号
214
期号
3
页码范围
1317-1329
简介
- Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida.
- We test risk‐based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk‐based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic.
- Risk‐based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius …
学术搜索中的文章
SR Hyatt‐Twynam, S Parnell, ROJH Stutt, TR Gottwald… - New Phytologist, 2017