作者
Robin N Thompson, T Déirdre Hollingsworth, Valerie Isham, Daniel Arribas-Bel, Ben Ashby, Tom Britton, Peter Challenor, Lauren HK Chappell, Hannah Clapham, Nik J Cunniffe, A Philip Dawid, Christl A Donnelly, Rosalind M Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Nigel Gilbert, Paul Glendinning, Julia R Gog, William S Hart, Hans Heesterbeek, Thomas House, Matt Keeling, István Z Kiss, Mirjam E Kretzschmar, Alun L Lloyd, Emma S McBryde, James M McCaw, Trevelyan J McKinley, Joel C Miller, Martina Morris, Philip D O'Neill, Kris V Parag, Carl AB Pearson, Lorenzo Pellis, Juliet RC Pulliam, Joshua V Ross, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Bernard W Silverman, Claudio J Struchiner, Michael J Tildesley, Pieter Trapman, Cerian R Webb, Denis Mollison, Olivier Restif
发表日期
2020/8/12
期刊
Proceedings of the Royal Society B
卷号
287
期号
1932
页码范围
20201405
出版商
The Royal Society
简介
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute ‘Models for an exit strategy’ workshop (11–15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit …
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RN Thompson, TD Hollingsworth, V Isham… - Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 2020