作者
James M McCaw, Jodie McVernon
发表日期
2007/10/1
期刊
Mathematical biosciences
卷号
209
期号
2
页码范围
336-360
出版商
Elsevier
简介
We introduce a novel mathematical model that effectively incorporates contact tracing in a realistic distribution mechanism for antiviral drugs in an influenza pandemic scenario. A strategy focused on targeted provision of post-exposure prophylaxis, rather than treatment, will provide the greatest chance of minimising the impact of an influenza pandemic. Targeted post-exposure prophylaxis delays the onset of the pandemic and for a wide range of parameter values, a delay of the order of 6–18 months may be achievable. This may provide enough time to develop and distribute a vaccine. In contrast, a treatment based strategy typically does not delay the onset of a pandemic by an appreciable amount and, in general, is not capable of significantly reducing the attack rate from baseline.
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