作者
Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy, H Juliette T Unwin, Thomas A Mellan, Helen Coupland, Charles Whittaker, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Mélodie Monod, Azra C Ghani, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Michaela AC Vollmer, Neil M Ferguson, Lucy C Okell, Samir Bhatt
发表日期
2020/8
期刊
Nature
卷号
584
期号
7820
页码范围
257-261
出版商
Nature Publishing Group
简介
Following the detection of the new coronavirus 1 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In response, many European countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the closure of schools and national lockdowns. Here we study the effect of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the COVID-19 epidemics in February 2020 until 4 May 2020, when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks previously, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries, with both individual and shared effects on the time-varying reproduction number (R t). Pooling allows for …
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