作者
H Juliette T Unwin, Swapnil Mishra, Valerie C Bradley, Axel Gandy, Thomas A Mellan, Helen Coupland, Jonathan Ish-Horowicz, Michaela Andrea Christine Vollmer, Charles Whittaker, Sarah L Filippi, Xiaoyue Xi, Mélodie Monod, Oliver Ratmann, Michael Hutchinson, Fabian Valka, Harrison Zhu, Iwona Hawryluk, Philip Milton, Kylie EC Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Nick F Brazeau, Lorenzo Cattarino, Zulma M Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Ilaria Dorigatti, Oliver D Eales, Jeffrey W Eaton, Sabinee L van Elsland, Richard G FitzJohn, Katy AM Gaythorpe, William Green, Wes Hinsley, Benjamin Jeffrey, Edward Knock, Daniel J Laydon, John Lees, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Lucy C Okell, Kris V Parag, Igor Siveroni, Hayley A Thompson, Patrick Walker, Caroline E Walters, Oliver J Watson, Lilith K Whittles, Azra Ghani, Neil M Ferguson, Steven Riley, Christl A Donnelly, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman
发表日期
2020/12/3
期刊
Nature communications
出版商
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
简介
As of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that Rt was only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We also estimate that 3.7% [3.4%–4.0 …
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HJT Unwin, S Mishra, VC Bradley, A Gandy, TA Mellan… - Nature communications, 2020
H Unwin - Imperial College London COVID-19 Reports, 2020