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Programs that incentivize private landowners to create habitats that offset losses due to conversion and climate change are increasingly being used to bolster sensitive wildlife populations. In the Central Valley of California, shorebird habitat incentive programs pay landowners to create additional habitat during the non‐breeding season by flooding their fields. However, it remains unclear how successful these programs have been in supporting baseline shorebird population needs or meeting established population goals, particularly in the face of changing environmental conditions. To address these questions, we used bioenergetics modeling to estimate shorebird food energy needs over four consecutive years that had the highest annual mean air temperatures ever recorded in California, and included years of extreme drought, as well as the second wettest winter on record. Our objectives were to (1 …