2021/3/31上传
作者
Haidong Wang, Mohsen Naghavi, Christine Allen, Ryan M Barber, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Austin Carter, Daniel C Casey, Fiona J Charlson, Alan Zian Chen, Matthew M Coates, Megan Coggeshall, Lalit Dandona, Daniel J Dicker, Holly E Erskine, Alize J Ferrari, Christina Fitzmaurice, Kyle Foreman, Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Maya S Fraser, Nancy Fullman, Peter W Gething, Ellen M Goldberg, Nicholas Graetz, Juanita A Haagsma, Simon I Hay, Chantal Huynh, Catherine O Johnson, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Yohannes Kinfu, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Michael Kutz, Hmwe H Kyu, Heidi J Larson, Janni Leung, Xiaofeng Liang, Stephen S Lim, Margaret Lind, Rafael Lozano, Neal Marquez, George A Mensah, Joe Mikesell, Ali H Mokdad, Meghan D Mooney, Grant Nguyen, Elaine Nsoesie, David M Pigott, Christine Pinho, Gregory A Roth, Joshua A Salomon, Logan Sandar, Naris Silpakit, Amber Sligar, Reed J D Sorensen, Jeffrey Stanaway, Caitlyn Steiner, Stephanie Teeple, Bernadette A Thomas, Christopher Troeger, Amelia VanderZanden
发表日期
2016/10/8
期刊
The Lancet
卷号
388
期号
10053
页码范围
1459-1544
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background
Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.
Methods
We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded …
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