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More accurate and reliable stroke risk prediction tools are needed to optimize anticoagulation decision making in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We developed a new AF stroke prediction model using the original Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) AF cohort and externally validated the score in a separate, contemporary, community‐based inception AF cohort, ATRIA–Cardiovascular Research Network (CVRN) cohort.

The derivation ATRIA cohort consisted of 10 927 patients with nonvalvular AF contributing 32 609 person‐years off warfarin and 685 thromboembolic events (TEs). The external validation ATRIA‐CVRN cohort included 25 306 AF patients contributing 26 263 person‐years off warfarin and 496 TEs. Cox models identified 8 variables, age, prior stroke, female sex, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, hypertension, proteinuria, and eGFR<45 mL/min …