作者
Jennifer Pan, Joseph Marie St. Pierre, Trevor A Pickering, Natalie L Demirjian, Brandon KK Fields, Bhushan Desai, Ali Gholamrezanezhad
发表日期
2020/11
期刊
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
卷号
17
期号
21
页码范围
8189
出版商
MDPI
简介
Background
The novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 has led to a global pandemic in which case fatality rate (CFR) has varied from country to country. This study aims to identify factors that may explain the variation in CFR across countries.
Methods
We identified 24 potential risk factors affecting CFR. For all countries with over 5000 reported COVID-19 cases, we used country-specific datasets from the WHO, the OECD, and the United Nations to quantify each of these factors. We examined univariable relationships of each variable with CFR, as well as correlations among predictors and potential interaction terms. Our final multivariable negative binomial model included univariable predictors of significance and all significant interaction terms.
Results
Across the 39 countries under consideration, our model shows COVID-19 case fatality rate was best predicted by time to implementation of social distancing measures, hospital beds per 1000 individuals, percent population over 70 years, CT scanners per 1 million individuals, and (in countries with high population density) smoking prevalence.
Conclusion
Our model predicted an increased CFR for countries that waited over 14 days to implement social distancing interventions after the 100th reported case. Smoking prevalence and percentage population over the age of 70 years were also associated with higher CFR. Hospital beds per 1000 and CT scanners per million were identified as possible protective factors associated with decreased CFR.
引用总数
20212022202320247774
学术搜索中的文章
J Pan, JM St. Pierre, TA Pickering, NL Demirjian… - International Journal of Environmental Research and …, 2020