作者
Apostolos Voulgarakis, Vaishali Naik, J-F Lamarque, Drew Todd Shindell, PJ Young, Michael J Prather, Oliver Wild, RD Field, D Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, I Cionni, WJ Collins, SB Dalsøren, RM Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Greg Faluvegi, GA Folberth, LW Horowitz, B Josse, IA MacKenzie, T Nagashima, DA Plummer, Mattia Righi, ST Rumbold, DS Stevenson, SA Strode, K Sudo, S Szopa, G Zeng
发表日期
2013/3/5
期刊
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
卷号
13
期号
5
页码范围
2563-2587
出版商
Copernicus GmbH
简介
Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8 ± 1.6 yr (9.3 ± 0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 ± 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5 ± 10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we …
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