作者
DS Stevenson, PJ Young, V Naik, J-F Lamarque, DT Shindell, A Voulgarakis, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, SB Dalsoren, Gunnar Myhre, Terje Koren Berntsen, GA Folberth, ST Rumbold, WJ Collins, IA MacKenzie, RM Doherty, G Zeng, TPC Van Noije, A Strunk, D Bergmann, P Cameron-Smith, DA Plummer, SA Strode, L Horowitz, YH Lee, S Szopa, K Sudo, T Nagashima, B Josse, I Cionni, Mattia Righi, Veronika Eyring, A Conley, KW Bowman, O Wild, A Archibald
发表日期
2013/3/15
期刊
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
卷号
13
期号
6
页码范围
3063-3085
出版商
Copernicus Publications
简介
Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12%), nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%), carbon monoxide (15 ± 3%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 ± 2%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work …
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