作者
Y Zhao, Chris P Nielsen, Yu Lei, Michael Brendon McElroy, J Hao
发表日期
2011/3/14
期刊
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
卷号
11
期号
5
页码范围
2295-2308
出版商
Copernicus GmbH
简介
The uncertainties of a national, bottom-up inventory of Chinese emissions of anthropogenic SO2, NOx, and particulate matter (PM) of different size classes and carbonaceous species are comprehensively quantified, for the first time, using Monte Carlo simulation. The inventory is structured by seven dominant sectors: coal-fired electric power, cement, iron and steel, other industry (boiler combustion), other industry (non-combustion processes), transportation, and residential. For each parameter related to emission factors or activity-level calculations, the uncertainties, represented as probability distributions, are either statistically fitted using results of domestic field tests or, when these are lacking, estimated based on foreign or other domestic data. The uncertainties (i.e., 95% confidence intervals around the central estimates) of Chinese emissions of SO2, NOx, total PM, PM10, PM2.5, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) in 2005 are estimated to be −14%~13%, −13%~37%, −11%~38%, −14%~45%, −17%~54%, −25%~136%, and −40%~121%, respectively. Variations at activity levels (e.g., energy consumption or industrial production) are not the main source of emission uncertainties. Due to narrow classification of source types, large sample sizes, and relatively high data quality, the coal-fired power sector is estimated to have the smallest emission uncertainties for all species except BC and OC. Due to poorer source classifications and a wider range of estimated emission factors, considerable uncertainties of NOx and PM emissions from cement production and boiler combustion in other industries are found. The probability distributions of …
引用总数
20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024825172533354451474550364119
学术搜索中的文章