作者
Jan AC Hontelez, Mark N Lurie, Marie-Louise Newell, Roel Bakker, Frank Tanser, Till Bärnighausen, Rob Baltussen, Sake J de Vlas
发表日期
2011/8/24
期刊
Aids
卷号
25
期号
13
页码范围
1665-1667
出版商
LWW
简介
We used an established microsimulation model, quantified to a rural South African setting with a well developed antiretroviral treatment programme, to predict the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the HIV epidemic in the population aged over 50 years. We show that the HIV prevalence in patients aged over 50 years will nearly double in the next 30 years, whereas the fraction of HIV-infected patients aged over 50 years will triple in the same period. This ageing epidemic has important consequences for the South African healthcare system, as older HIV patients require specialized care.
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JAC Hontelez, MN Lurie, ML Newell, R Bakker… - Aids, 2011