作者
RM Anderson, GF Medley, RM May, AM Johnson
发表日期
1986/1/1
期刊
Mathematical Medicine and Biology: a Journal of the IMA
卷号
3
期号
4
页码范围
229-263
出版商
Oxford University Press
简介
The paper describes some preliminary attempts to formulate simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection in homosexual communities. In conjunction with a survey of the available epidemiological data on HIV infection and the incidence of AIDS, the models are used to assess how various processes influence the course of the initial epidemic following the introduction of the virus. Models of the early stages of viral spread provide crude methods for estimating the basic reproductive rate of the virus, given a knowledge of the incubation period of the disease (AIDS) and the initial doubling time of the epidemic. More complex models are formulated to assess the influence of variation in the incubation period and heterogeneity in sexual activity. The latter factor is shown to have a major effect on the predicted pattern of the epidemic; high levels of heterogeneity decrease its magnitude …
引用总数
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202433146332511261714147841137126121611121813222427162219221821353730236
学术搜索中的文章