作者
Andrew C Johnson, Mike C Acreman, Michael J Dunbar, Stephen W Feist, Anna Maria Giacomello, Rodolph E Gozlan, Shelley A Hinsley, Anton T Ibbotson, Helen P Jarvie, J Iwan Jones, Matt Longshaw, Stephen C Maberly, Terry J Marsh, Colin Neal, Jonathan R Newman, Miles A Nunn, Roger W Pickup, Nick S Reynard, Caroline A Sullivan, John P Sumpter, Richard J Williams
发表日期
2009/8/15
来源
Science of the Total Environment
卷号
407
期号
17
页码范围
4787-4798
出版商
Elsevier
简介
The possible effects of changing climate on a southern and a north-eastern English river (the Thames and the Yorkshire Ouse, respectively) were examined in relation to water and ecological quality throughout the food web. The CLASSIC hydrological model, driven by output from the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3), based on IPCC low and high CO2 emission scenarios for 2080 were used as the basis for the analysis. Compared to current conditions, the CLASSIC model predicted lower flows for both rivers, in all seasons except winter. Such an outcome would lead to longer residence times (by up to a month in the Thames), with nutrient, organic and biological contaminant concentrations elevated by 70–100% pro-rata, assuming sewage treatment effectiveness remains unchanged. Greater opportunities for phytoplankton growth will arise, and this may be significant in the Thames. Warmer winters and …
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AC Johnson, MC Acreman, MJ Dunbar, SW Feist… - Science of the Total Environment, 2009