作者
Shi Zhao, Biao Tang, Salihu S Musa, Shujuan Ma, Jiayue Zhang, Minyan Zeng, Qingping Yun, Wei Guo, Yixiang Zheng, Zuyao Yang, Zhihang Peng, Marc KC Chong, Mohammad Javanbakht, Daihai He, Maggie H Wang
发表日期
2021/9/1
期刊
Epidemics
卷号
36
页码范围
100482
出版商
Elsevier
简介
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged by end of 2019, and became a serious public health threat globally in less than half a year. The generation interval and latent period, though both are of importance in understanding the features of COVID-19 transmission, are difficult to observe, and thus they can rarely be learnt from surveillance data empirically. In this study, we develop a likelihood framework to estimate the generation interval and incubation period simultaneously by using the contact tracing data of COVID-19 cases, and infer the pre-symptomatic transmission proportion and latent period thereafter. We estimate the mean of incubation period at 6.8 days (95 %CI: 6.2, 7.5) and SD at 4.1 days (95 %CI: 3.7, 4.8), and the mean of generation interval at 6.7 days (95 %CI: 5.4, 7.6) and SD at 1.8 days (95 %CI: 0.3, 3.8). The basic reproduction number is estimated ranging from 1.9 to 3.6, and there are …
引用总数
2020202120222023202418212818