作者
Abraham D Flaxman, Alec W Deason, Andrew J Dolgert, John Everett Mumford, Reed JD Sorensen, Erika Eldrenkamp, Theo Vos, Kyle Foreman, Ali H Mokdad, Marcia R Weaver
发表日期
2017/7/9
图书
Proceedings of the Summer Simulation Multi-Conference
页码范围
1-12
简介
Cost-effectiveness analysis microsimulation for low- and middle-income countries can guide decision makers in allocating limited health budgets. But in order to compare alternative options, estimates of cost and effect must account for a high level of uncertainty in input parameters (parameter uncertainty) and also include an appropriate amount of stochastic uncertainty. It can be a challenge to incorporate the stochastic uncertainty appropriately, particularly when there is a lot of parameter uncertainty, due to large variance in the quantities of interest (such as incremental cost and health of an intervention scenario as compared to a baseline scenario). We investigated the utility of the common-random-numbers approach to variance reduction in simulation and found it very useful. We found that without variance reduction our intervention erroneously appeared unacceptable at any threshold, but with variance reduced …
引用总数
201720182019202020212022111
学术搜索中的文章
AD Flaxman, AW Deason, AJ Dolgert, JE Mumford… - Proceedings of the Summer Simulation Multi …, 2017