作者
Kyle J Foreman, Neal Marquez, Andrew Dolgert, Kai Fukutaki, Nancy Fullman, Madeline McGaughey, Martin A Pletcher, Amanda E Smith, Kendrick Tang, Chun-Wei Yuan, Jonathan C Brown, Joseph Friedman, Jiawei He, Kyle R Heuton, Mollie Holmberg, Disha J Patel, Patrick Reidy, Austin Carter, Kelly Cercy, Abigail Chapin, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Tahvi Frank, Falko Goettsch, Patrick Y Liu, Vishnu Nandakumar, Marissa B Reitsma, Vince Reuter, Nafis Sadat, Reed JD Sorensen, Vinay Srinivasan, Rachel L Updike, Hunter York, Alan D Lopez, Rafael Lozano, Stephen S Lim, Ali H Mokdad, Stein Emil Vollset, Christopher JL Murray
发表日期
2018/11/10
期刊
The Lancet
卷号
392
期号
10159
页码范围
2052-2090
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background
Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts —and alternative future scenarios—for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories.
Methods
We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990–2016, to generate predictions for 2017–40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to …
学术搜索中的文章
KJ Foreman, N Marquez, A Dolgert, K Fukutaki… - The Lancet, 2018