作者
Colin J Carlson, Gregory F Albery, Cory Merow, Christopher H Trisos, Casey M Zipfel, Evan A Eskew, Kevin J Olival, Noam Ross, Shweta Bansal
发表日期
2022/7/21
期刊
Nature
卷号
607
页码范围
555-562
出版商
Nature Publishing Group
简介
At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals 1, 2. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife 3, 4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal–virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an …
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