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Objectives To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS₂ (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age≥75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA₂DS₂-VASc (CHA₂DS₂-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism.

Design Registry based cohort study.

Setting Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation.

Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006.

Main outcome measures Stroke and thromboembolism.

Results Of 121 280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73 538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at “low risk” (score=0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS₂ and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA₂DS₂ …