作者
Gianmarco Altoè, Giulia Bertoldo, Claudio Zandonella Callegher, Enrico Toffalini, Antonio Calcagnì, Livio Finos, Massimiliano Pastore
发表日期
2020/1/14
期刊
Frontiers in Psychology
卷号
10
页码范围
2893
出版商
Frontiers Media SA
简介
In the past two decades, psychological science has experienced an unprecedented replicability crisis, which has uncovered several issues. Among others, the use and misuse of statistical inference plays a key role in this crisis. Indeed, statistical inference is too often viewed as an isolated procedure limited to the analysis of data that have already been collected. Instead, statistical reasoning is necessary both at the planning stage and when interpreting the results of a research project. Based on these considerations, we build on and further develop an idea proposed by Gelman and Carlin termed “prospective and retrospective design analysis.” Rather than focusing only on the statistical significance of a result and on the classical control of type I and type II errors, a comprehensive design analysis involves reasoning about what can be considered a plausible effect size. Furthermore, it introduces two relevant inferential risks: the exaggeration ratio or Type M error (i.e., the predictable average overestimation of an effect that emerges as statistically significant) and the sign error or Type S error (i.e., the risk that a statistically significant effect is estimated in the wrong direction). Another important aspect of design analysis is that it can be usefully carried out both in the planning phase of a study and for the evaluation of studies that have already been conducted, thus increasing researchers' awareness during all phases of a research project. To illustrate the benefits of a design analysis to the widest possible audience, we use a familiar example in psychology where the researcher is interested in analyzing the differences between two independent …
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