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Little is known about the impacts of increased frequencies of extreme climatic events (ECEs) on agricultural landscapes, though such events may be much more detrimental than those of gradual climate change alone. Here we develop an approach for examining the sensitivity of agricultural systems to climatic variability and ECEs on pasture-based dairy farms.

Using a combination of spreadsheet formulae, biophysical and economic tools, we compared two approaches for generating future climate scenarios: a ‘Gradual’ approach, wherein climate projections of changes in monthly average temperature and rainfall were applied without altering the pattern of ECEs, and a ‘Variable’ approach, where monthly change projections were combined with more heatwaves, longer droughts and more extreme rainfall events to generate future scenarios with increased variability.

The sensitivity of each approach was compared …