作者
Rafael Lozano, Mohsen Naghavi, Kyle Foreman, Stephen Lim, Kenji Shibuya, Victor Aboyans, Jerry Abraham, Timothy Adair, Rakesh Aggarwal, Stephanie Y Ahn, Mohammad A AlMazroa, Miriam Alvarado, H Ross Anderson, Laurie M Anderson, Kathryn G Andrews, Charles Atkinson, Larry M Baddour, Suzanne Barker-Collo, David H Bartels, Michelle L Bell, Emelia J Benjamin, Derrick Bennett, Kavi Bhalla, Boris Bikbov, Aref Bin Abdulhak, Gretchen Birbeck, Fiona Blyth, Ian Bolliger, Soufiane Boufous, Chiara Bucello, Michael Burch, Peter Burney, Jonathan Carapetis, Honglei Chen, David Chou, Sumeet S Chugh, Luc E Coffeng, Steven D Colan, Samantha Colquhoun, K Ellicott Colson, John Condon, Myles D Connor, Leslie T Cooper, Matthew Corriere, Monica Cortinovis, Karen Courville De Vaccaro, William Couser, Benjamin C Cowie, Michael H Criqui, Marita Cross, Kaustubh C Dabhadkar, Nabila Dahodwala, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Allyne Delossantos, Julie Denenberg, Don C Des Jarlais, Samath D Dharmaratne, E Ray Dorsey, Tim Driscoll, Herbert Duber, Beth Ebel, Patricia J Erwin, Patricia Espindola, Majid Ezzati, Valery Feigin, Abraham D Flaxman, Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Francis Gerry R Fowkes, Richard Franklin, Marlene Fransen, Michael K Freeman, Sherine E Gabriel, Emmanuela Gakidou, Flavio Gaspari, Richard F Gillum, Diego Gonzalez-Medina, Yara A Halasa, Diana Haring, James E Harrison, Rasmus Havmoeller, Roderick J Hay, Bruno Hoen, Peter J Hotez, Damian Hoy, Kathryn H Jacobsen, Spencer L James, Rashmi Jasrasaria, Sudha Jayaraman, Nicole Johns, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Nicholas Kassebaum, Andre Keren, Jon-Paul Khoo, Lisa Marie Knowlton, Olive Kobusingye, Adofo Koranteng, Rita Krishnamurthi, Michael Lipnick, Steven E Lipshultz, Summer Lockett Ohno, Jacqueline Mabweijano, Michael F MacIntyre, Leslie Mallinger, Lyn March, Guy B Marks, Robin Marks, Akira Matsumori, Richard Matzopoulos, Bongani M Mayosi, John H McAnulty, Mary M McDermott, John McGrath, Ziad A Memish, George A Mensah, Tony R Merriman, Catherine Michaud, Matthew Miller, Ted R Miller, Charles Mock, Ana Olga Mocumbi, Ali A Mokdad, Andrew Moran, Kim Mulholland, M Nathan Nair, Luigi Naldi, KM Venkat Narayan, Kiumarss Nasseri, Paul Norman, Martin O'Donnell, Saad B Omer, Katrina Ortblad, Richard Osborne, Doruk Ozgediz, Bishnu Pahari, Jeyaraj Durai Pandian, Andrea Panozo Rivero, Rogelio Perez Padilla, Fernando Perez-Ruiz, Norberto Perico, David Phillips, Kelsey Pierce, C Arden Pope, Esteban Porrini, Farshad Pourmalek, Murugesan Raju, Dharani Ranganathan, Jürgen T Rehm, David B Rein, Guiseppe Remuzzi
发表日期
2012/12/15
期刊
The lancet
卷号
380
期号
9859
页码范围
2095-2128
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background
Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.
Methods
We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and …
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