查看文章

Background: Predictions of cardiovascular disease risks based on health records have long attracted broad research interests. Despite extensive efforts, the prediction accuracy has remained unsatisfactory. This raises the question as to whether the data insufficiency, statistical and machine-learning methods, or intrinsic noise have hindered the performance of previous approaches, and how these issues can be alleviated.

Objective: Based on a large population of patients with hypertension in Shenzhen, China, we aimed to establish a high-precision coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction model through big data and machine-learning

Methods: Data from a large cohort of 42,676 patients with hypertension, including 20,156 patients with CHD onset, were investigated from electronic health records (EHRs) 1-3 years prior to CHD onset (for CHD-positive cases) or during a disease-free follow-up period of more than 3 years (for CHD-negative cases). The population was divided evenly into independent training and test datasets. Various machine-learning methods were adopted on the training set to achieve high-accuracy prediction models and the results were compared with traditional statistical methods and well-known risk scales. Comparison analyses were performed to investigate the effects of training sample size, factor sets, and modeling approaches on the prediction performance.

Results: An ensemble method, XGBoost, achieved high accuracy in predicting 3-year CHD onset for the independent test dataset with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.943. Comparison analysis showed that nonlinear …