作者
Jamie D Wilson, Oliver Andrews, Anna Katavouta, Francisco de Melo Viríssimo, Ros M Death, Markus Adloff, Chelsey A Baker, Benedict Blackledge, Fraser W Goldsworth, Alan T Kennedy-Asser, Qian Liu, Katie R Sieradzan, Emily Vosper, Rui Ying
发表日期
2022/7/19
期刊
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
卷号
119
期号
29
页码范围
e2204369119
出版商
National Academy of Sciences
简介
The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of –0.15 to –1.44 Pg C y–1. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor …
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