作者
Toni Lyn Morelli, Adam B Smith, Christina R Kastely, Ilaria Mastroserio, Craig Moritz, Steven R Beissinger
发表日期
2012/10/22
期刊
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
卷号
279
期号
1745
页码范围
4279-4286
出版商
The Royal Society
简介
We conducted detailed resurveys of a montane mammal, Urocitellus beldingi, to examine the effects of climate change on persistence along the trailing edge of its range. Of 74 California sites where U. beldingi were historically recorded (1902–1966), 42 per cent were extirpated, with no evidence for colonization of previously unoccupied sites. Increases in both precipitation and temperature predicted site extirpations, potentially owing to snowcover loss. Surprisingly, human land-use change buffered climate change impacts, leading to increased persistence and abundance. Excluding human-modified sites, U. beldingi has shown an upslope range retraction of 255 m. Generalized additive models of past distribution were predictive of modern range contractions (AUC = 0.76) and projected extreme reductions (52% and 99%, respectively) of U. beldingi's southwestern range to 2080 climates (Hadley and CCCMA A2 …
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TL Morelli, AB Smith, CR Kastely, I Mastroserio… - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological …, 2012