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Plants existing in small and isolated populations often depend on microclimatic refugia that create local environments buffered from macroclimatic conditions. Currently much effort is devoted toward identifying features that create refugial conditions in the expectation that they will continue to serve as refugia into the future. However, the ability of a refuge to resist macroclimatic change is a biological question, not an abiotic one, since species can persist in these conditions while suffering slow decline. Here we test the ability of current refugial habitats of Geum radiatum, a narrowly endemic perennial herb specializing in cool, humid, high elevation sites, to continue to serve as refugia under present and future climatic conditions. We constructed integral projection models to characterize demography, and macro- and topoclimatic niche models to predict dynamics given climate change through 2070. This species' …