作者
Sudarat Chadsuthi, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Wannapong Triampo, Charin Modchang
发表日期
2015
期刊
Computational and mathematical methods in medicine
卷号
2015
期号
1
页码范围
436495
出版商
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
简介
Influenza is a worldwide respiratory infectious disease that easily spreads from one person to another. Previous research has found that the influenza transmission process is often associated with climate variables. In this study, we used autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots to determine the appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for influenza transmission in the central and southern regions of Thailand. The relationships between reported influenza cases and the climate data, such as the amount of rainfall, average temperature, average maximum relative humidity, average minimum relative humidity, and average relative humidity, were evaluated using cross‐correlation function. Based on the available data of suspected influenza cases and climate variables, the most appropriate ARIMA(X) model for each region was obtained. We found that the average temperature …
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