作者
Qiushi Chen, Marc R Larochelle, Davis T Weaver, Anna P Lietz, Peter P Mueller, Sarah Mercaldo, Sarah E Wakeman, Kenneth A Freedberg, Tiana J Raphel, Amy B Knudsen, Pari V Pandharipande, Jagpreet Chhatwal
发表日期
2019/2/1
期刊
JAMA network open
卷号
2
期号
2
页码范围
e187621-e187621
出版商
American Medical Association
简介
Importance
Deaths due to opioid overdose have tripled in the last decade. Efforts to curb this trend have focused on restricting the prescription opioid supply; however, the near-term effects of such efforts are unknown.
Objective
To project effects of interventions to lower prescription opioid misuse on opioid overdose deaths from 2016 to 2025.
Design, Setting, and Participants
This system dynamics (mathematical) model of the US opioid epidemic projected outcomes of simulated individuals who engage in nonmedical prescription or illicit opioid use from 2016 to 2025. The analysis was performed in 2018 by retrospectively calibrating the model from 2002 to 2015 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Interventions
Comparison of interventions that would lower the incidence of prescription opioid misuse from 2016 to 2025 based on historical trends (a 7 …
学术搜索中的文章
Q Chen, MR Larochelle, DT Weaver, AP Lietz… - JAMA network open, 2019