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Brain changes reminiscent of Alzheimer disease (AD) have been previously reported in a substantial portion of elderly cognitive healthy (HC) subjects. The major aim was to evaluate the accuracy of MRI assessed regional gray matter (GM) volume, 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET), and neuropsychological test scores to identify those HC subjects who subsequently convert to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or AD dementia. We obtained in 54 healthy control (HC) subjects a priori defined region of interest (ROI) values of medial temporal and parietal FDG-PET and medial temporal GM volume. In logistic regression analyses, these ROI values were tested together with neuropsychological test scores (free recall, trail making test B (TMT-B)) as predictors of HC conversion during a clinical follow-up between 3 and 4 years. In voxel-based analyses, FDG-PET and MRI GM maps were …