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The second pulse of the Late Ordovician mass extinction occurred around the Hirnantian-Rhuddanian boundary (~444 Ma) and has been correlated with expanded marine anoxia lasting into the earliest Silurian. Characterization of the Hirnantian ocean anoxic event has focused on the onset of anoxia, with global reconstructions based on carbonate δ²³⁸U modeling. However, there have been limited attempts to quantify uncertainty in metal isotope mass balance approaches. Here, we probabilistically evaluate coupled metal isotopes and sedimentary archives to increase constraint. We present iron speciation, metal concentration, δ⁹⁸Mo and δ²³⁸U measurements of Rhuddanian black shales from the Murzuq Basin, Libya. We evaluate these data (and published carbonate δ²³⁸U data) with a coupled stochastic mass balance model. Combined statistical analysis of metal isotopes and sedimentary sinks provides …