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The federal government has set measurable goals for reducing childhood obesity to 5% by 2010 (Healthy People 2010), and 10% lower than 2005–2008 levels by 2020 (Healthy People 2020). However, population-level estimates of the changes in daily energy balance needed to reach these goals are lacking.

To estimate needed per capita reductions in youths' daily “energy gap” (calories consumed over calories expended) to achieve Healthy People goals by 2020.

Analyses were conducted in 2010 to fit multivariate models using National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1971–2008 (N=46,164) to extrapolate past trends in obesity prevalence, weight, and BMI among youth aged 2–19 years. Differences in average daily energy requirements between the extrapolated 2020 levels and Healthy People scenarios were estimated.

During 1971–2008, mean …