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The natural history of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is not well defined and its clinical course is variable. We sought to investigate the survival and incidence of acute exacerbations (AEs) and their significant predictors in newly diagnosed patients.

70 patients newly diagnosed with IPF were prospectively followed for at least 3 yrs. Baseline evaluation included Medical Research Council dyspnoea score (MRCDS), 6-min walk test, pulmonary function tests, all of which were repeated at 6 months, and high-resolution computed tomography. A retrospective cohort of 68 patients was used for confirmation.

Mean survival from the time of diagnosis was 30 months, with a 3-yr mortality of 46%. A Risk stratificatiOn ScorE (ROSE) based on MRCDS >3, 6-min walking distance ≤72% predicted and composite physiologic index >41 predicted 3-yr mortality with high specificity. 6-month progression of ROSE predicted rapid …