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Despite their abundance in near-shore tropical and subtropical marine environments, which support much of the world’s elasmobranch fisheries, population dynamics and impacts of fisheries on stingrays are poorly documented. Age-structured demographic models were developed using empirical estimates of fecundity, longevity and maturity to project population growth parameters and potential responses to fishing mortality of Dasyatis dipterura from the Bahía Magdalena lagoon complex, México. Monte Carlo simulation was incorporated to include uncertainty in life history parameters into model projections. Six models were developed using deterministic and probabilistic approaches under unexploited and exploited (fishing mortality = 0.05 year–1) conditions. Mean annual population growth rates (λ) of 1.05–1.06 (5–6% increase), net reproductive rates of 2.3–2.4 and generation times of 14.9–16.5 years were …