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This study aims to evaluate the trends and geographic variations of incident diabetes as well as the corresponding sex differences in China.

The open cohort study derived data of 16,610 individuals from the China Health and Nutrition Survey 1997–2015. Direct standardisation was employed to calculate the age‐standardised diabetes incidence. Mixed effects logistic regression models with interaction terms were performed to examine variations in incident diabetes. Socio‐demographic (age, sex, marital status, racial compositions and educational attainment) and lifestyle attributes (smoking history, BMI and waist circumference) were sequentially included as covariates.

Overall age‐standardised diabetes incidence increased from 2.94 per 1000 person‐years (95% CI, 2.44–3.44) in 1997–2004 to 5.54 (95% CI, 4.94–6.14) in 2009–2015. Models with interaction terms suggest that the …