作者
Lilith K Whittles, Xavier Didelot
发表日期
2016/5/11
期刊
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
卷号
283
期号
1830
页码范围
20160618
出版商
The Royal Society
简介
Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is one of the deadliest infectious diseases in human history, and still causes worrying outbreaks in Africa and South America. Despite the historical and current importance of plague, several questions remain unanswered concerning its transmission routes and infection risk factors. The plague outbreak that started in September 1665 in the Derbyshire village of Eyam claimed 257 lives over 14 months, wiping out entire families. Since previous attempts at modelling the Eyam plague, new data have been unearthed from parish records revealing a much more complete record of the disease. Using a stochastic compartmental model and Bayesian analytical methods, we found that both rodent-to-human and human-to-human transmission played an important role in spreading the infection, and that they accounted, respectively, for a quarter and three-quarters of all …
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LK Whittles, X Didelot - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological …, 2016