作者
Thomas A Mellan, Henrique H Hoeltgebaum, Swapnil Mishra, Charlie Whittaker, Ricardo P Schnekenberg, Axel Gandy, H Juliette T Unwin, Michaela AC Vollmer, Helen Coupland, Iwona Hawryluk, Nuno Rodrigues Faria, Juan Vesga, Harrison Zhu, Michael Hutchinson, Oliver Ratmann, Melodie Monod, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Nicholas Brazeau, Giovanni Charles, Laura V Cooper, Zulma Cucunuba, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra Djaafara, Jeff Eaton, Sabine L van Elsland, Richard FitzJohn, Keith Fraser, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Sarah Hayes, Natsuko Imai, Ben Jeffrey, Edward Knock, Daniel Laydon, John Lees, Tara Mangal, Andria Mousa, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Daniela Olivera, Kris V Parag, Michael Pickles, Hayley A Thompson, Robert Verity, Caroline Walters, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Oliver J Watson, Lilith Whittles, Xiaoyue Xi, Lucy Okell, Ilaria Dorigatti, Patrick Walker, Azra Ghani, Steven M Riley, Neil M Ferguson, Christl A Donnelly, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt
发表日期
2020
简介
1Brazil is currently reporting the second highest number of COVID-19 deaths in the world. Here we characterise the initial dynamics of COVID-19 across the country and assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that were implemented using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach. Our results highlight the significant impact these NPIs had across states, reducing an average Rt> 3 to an average of 1.5 by 9-May-2020, but that these interventions failed to reduce Rt< 1, congruent with the worsening epidemic Brazil has experienced since. We identify extensive heterogeneity in the epidemic trajectory across Brazil, with the estimated number of days to reach 0.1% of the state population infected since the first nationally recorded case ranging from 20 days in Sao Paulo compared to 60 days in Goias, underscoring the importance of sub-national analyses in understanding asynchronous state-level epidemics underlying the national spread and burden of COVID-19.
学术搜索中的文章
TA Mellan, HH Hoeltgebaum, S Mishra, C Whittaker… - 2020
TA Mellan, HH Hoeltgebaum, S Mishra, C Whittaker… - MedRxiv, 2020