作者
Edward S Knock, Lilith K Whittles, John A Lees, Pablo N Perez-Guzman, Robert Verity, Richard G FitzJohn, Katy AM Gaythorpe, Natsuko Imai, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Alicia Rosello, Nikolas Kantas, Caroline E Walters, Sangeeta Bhatia, Oliver J Watson, Charlie Whittaker, Lorenzo Cattarino, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Bimandra A Djaafara, Keith Fraser, Han Fu, Haowei Wang, Xiaoyue Xi, Christl A Donnelly, Elita Jauneikaite, Daniel J Laydon, Peter J White, Azra C Ghani, Neil M Ferguson, Anne Cori, Marc Baguelin
发表日期
2021/7/14
期刊
Science Translational Medicine
卷号
13
期号
602
页码范围
eabg4262
出版商
American Association for the Advancement of Science
简介
We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rteff) below 1 consistently; if introduced 1 week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 [95% credible interval (CrI): 15,900 to 38,400]. The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95% CrI: 0.85 to 1.21%) to 0.79% (95% CrI: 0.63 to 0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95% CrI: 14.7 to 35.2%) than those residing in …
引用总数
2020202120222023202442345408